#美国就业数据不及预期 1.15 Gold Market Observation

The bullish pattern remains unchanged. The key support at 4620 is still holding. The short strategy near 4640 high yesterday evening has already been executed. Gold later rebounded to 4642 but failed to break out with volume, then turned back down to around 4625 to halt the decline. Currently, it is in a strong correction phase—this is not a sign of a top; rather, it indicates that the bulls are cleaning up the battlefield.

The macro environment is favorable for gold. Economic growth remains moderate overall, employment is stable without deterioration, and prices are rising mildly in most regions. Tariff cost pressures are widespread but have not yet resulted in alarming data. These factors combined provide no reason for the central bank to aggressively raise interest rates. Rate cut expectations persist, and the relative weakness of the US dollar naturally supports gold.

Liquidity conditions are also cooperating. Today, a 900 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase operation is being conducted, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. This is the fifth consecutive month of increased liquidity operations, directly implying that the banking system remains ample—an advantage for asset allocation and gold attractiveness.

Key US data points today. Last week’s initial jobless claims (expected 215,000), January New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices, and December import price index are critical. If the data are weaker than expected, it will further reinforce rate cut expectations, directly benefiting gold; if stronger than expected, it may trigger a short-term correction but will not change the underlying bullish logic.

Technical outlook

Structural integrity remains intact. After pulling back from 4642, there was no breakdown of the key bullish defense level, and the short-term continuation is clearly insufficient. The 4620 to 4625 range is the focus for short-term trading; holding above 4620 can maintain the consolidation phase after the rally. The daily bullish arrangement remains, no volume increase from the bears on the 4-hour chart, and the hourly chart shows oscillation and accumulation, so the strong framework is still valid.

Key price levels confirmation. On the upside, 4640 is resistance; a breakout targets 4645 to 4650. On the downside, 4620 to 4618 are supports; a break below would require watching the strong support at 4600.

Trading strategy for today

Go long lightly around 4620 to 4618 when the price stabilizes, targeting 4640. If it breaks through, look for 4645 to 4650, with a stop-loss below 4615.

If it effectively breaks below 4618, do not chase the short position. Wait for stabilization around 4600 before considering new long entries. $BTC $ETH $XRP