2026-01-14 20:24:20

Recently, I've seen many friends in the community discussing the price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Some are cheering excitedly, thinking the bull market has arrived, while others are debating whether to close their positions. My view might be a bit different — this recent surge looks fierce, but essentially it's just a standard B-wave rebound, far from a true market reversal.

Why am I so confident? Mainly from three perspectives:

**First, the daily trend hasn't reversed yet.** Open the daily K-chart, and the MA5, MA10, and MA20 lines are still arranged in a bearish order, showing no effective signs of a trend reversal. Every time the price rebounds, it gets pushed down at the previous dense trading zones — a classic case of weak strength. This "weak rebound" characteristic suggests that as long as one moving average hasn't turned bullish, don't expect a trend reversal.

**Second, the on-chain data doesn't tell a positive story.** The root of this rally is actually technical correction after overselling, combined with market expectations adjustment for short-term liquidity, leading to capital inflow. But looking at the on-chain data, institutional funds haven't entered massively; instead, large sell pressure signals persist, indicating no new capital is flowing in. Without fresh blood, a rebound can't be called a bull market.

**Third, technical indicators have issued warning signals.** The RSI has bounced back from oversold territory to a high level, indicating that the short-term correction may have gone a bit too far. More importantly, the ADX indicator shows the current trend strength is still below 25, which means the upward move lacks real sustained momentum. To put it plainly, the bears are "resting," not completely giving up.

Putting these three points together, the situation is quite clear: there is indeed a short-term rebound, but this rebound is like a temporary pause for the bears, not a fundamental trend change. The medium- to long-term bearish logic remains intact, and this rally hasn't broken that.

BTC0,77%

ETH-0,66%

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SatoshiHeir

· 6h ago

It should be pointed out that this guy's analytical framework actually still stays within the clichés of classical technical analysis. Based on the original ideas in the white paper, Bitcoin's price discovery process has never been dictated by MA moving averages... On-chain data shows that the current situation is much more complicated than you think, but I can't say I fully understand. "Bear" truce? Laughs. The term is well-used, but it lacks some sense. When real incremental funds enter the market, your B-wave rebound theory should be revised.

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SerRugResistant

· 6h ago

The moving averages haven't turned around and you're still talking about a bull market, that's really interesting. Institutions are dumping, and you still dare to call for increased capital inflows? Just listen. It's just a B-wave rebound, don't be fooled by short-term movements. RSI has risen again; this correction should be reaching its peak. A pause in the bear market isn't a sign of defeat; there's nothing wrong with that statement. Looking at on-chain data, it's clear no one truly believes in this rally. It's another standard technical rebound; next time, it'll just fall again. An ADX below 25 indicates there's no real trend. With such a moving average arrangement, even a fierce rebound is just an illusion. The dense trading zone gets knocked down, and the cycle repeats every time.

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BlockchainRetirementHome

· 6h ago

Another story of a B-wave rebound, sounds quite professional, but I bet five bucks someone will change their tune next week. Don't get excited before the moving averages turn around, I agree with that. Institutions are selling, retail investors are celebrating, a typical peak during a rebound. High RSI + low ADX, the bears are just holding their big move, this wave really can't gather strength. When ADX is below 25, I just laugh. What kind of trend strength is that? It disperses at the slightest breeze. The resistance level in the dense trading zone is really hard to break through; as soon as it rebounds there, it starts to weaken. Honestly, without new funds, it's a deadlock. No matter how beautiful the candlestick chart looks, it can't save the situation.

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