Can Bitcoin reach 170,000 in 2026? Analyzing the technical aspects and historical patterns, how likely is this rebound?

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Recently, Bitcoin has been declining from the high of over $126,000 in October to around $84,000 in mid-November, marking more than two months of downward pressure. However, from a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30 into the oversold zone, which is an interesting signal.

Looking back at historical data, since 2023, the RSI has entered oversold territory five times, and each time Bitcoin rebounded afterward. If this pattern continues, according to macro analysts’ projections, Bitcoin could surge to $170,000 within three months. It sounds a bit crazy, but based on historical repetition, it’s not entirely unfounded.

What’s more encouraging is the actions from institutional players. The chief investment officer of a leading investment firm recently stated that the growth trajectory of crypto ETFs is “quite optimistic.” Some major brokerages are starting to invest real money, and it’s expected that ETF capital inflows will hit record highs next year.

Why is the market suppressing prices now? Mainly two reasons — first, investors are worried that the four-year cycle is about to trigger, prompting early sell-offs; second, recent market volatility has dampened sentiment. But these are temporary phases. Once this wave of pessimism dissipates, with tokenization and institutional adoption gradually becoming the main driving forces, the market will move upward based on its fundamental logic. In other words, the opportunities for 2026 may be accumulating during this stage.