At 23:00 tonight, the Federal Reserve will release the PCE data, which could be the most crucial indicator before the December rate hike decision. Don’t underestimate this set of numbers—when CPI data is missing, PCE becomes Powell’s team’s most trusted inflation thermometer, and it’s also the trigger point for the entire crypto market’s sentiment.

Many people think PCE is just for traditional finance and has nothing to do with the crypto world. That’s a big mistake. This data essentially tests the Fed’s confidence in its policies. If the data comes in below expectations, the market will bet on policy easing, and BTC could head straight for $100,000. If the data is off the charts, then just watch how the bears dump the market.

But there’s a trap here: the most common mistake retail investors make is letting the data lead them by the nose. How many people are now staring at the countdown, waiting for the starting gun? But the big players have already positioned themselves in advance. If you look back at the historical records, you’ll find that in the half hour before major data releases, the futures market often plays out a wild script—a big green candle to lure in longs, a sudden wick to shake out weak hands, then a quick reversal to harvest those chasing the pumps and dumps.

So how can retail investors survive? Remember these three words: steady, precise, ruthless.

Steady: Don’t go all-in in any direction; use grid trading to keep your risk in a controllable range.
Precise: Keep a close eye on BTC and ETH futures premium rates. Once the premium soars past 5%, the probability of a short-term top spikes.
Ruthless: Always set take-profit and stop-loss orders, but never set them at round numbers—those are the targets for whales to hunt for liquidity.

At the end of the day, data is just a tool; your mindset is the real weapon. Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin to fight against this kind of centralized manipulation, didn’t he? No matter how important tonight’s PCE is, it’s just a psychological battle—whoever panics first, loses first. Keep your own rhythm, don’t be a slave to the data.

Market rules change every day, but human nature’s weaknesses never change. Tonight, be your own master; don’t let your emotions take you hostage.