When capital is pouring in like crazy but the price remains completely still, who is really running the show in this game?

Yesterday, the XRP spot ETF saw another $38.04 million in net inflows, with Franklin's XRPZ alone accounting for $31.7 million. These numbers are out in the open—institutions are telling the market with real money: We're buying. But what's odd is that the price action hasn’t responded as expected.

A look at the one-hour chart reveals an awkward truth.

The current price is stuck at 2.0513, pinned right at the critical 2.0499 level. What’s worse, the MACD lines are still below the zero axis, maintaining a bearish crossover. It’s like hearing your company is issuing a year-end bonus, only to see your paycheck shrinking—news and reality are at odds.

This kind of divergence is not a coincidence.

From the bulls’ perspective, the ETF has seen cumulative net inflows of $935 million. This kind of capital isn’t here for a quick trade. Smart money is quietly accumulating, taking a medium- to long-term view—this is fuel for future rallies.

But bears still have their cards. The one-hour trend is clearly down, moving averages are capping the price, and the bearish MACD crossover signals declining short-term momentum. If 2.0499 is decisively broken, the next stop is likely the strong support at 1.9947. The resistance at 2.1110 looks like a mountain right now—without a bullish MACD crossover and a strong reclaim of key moving averages, breaking through will be tough.

So here’s the question: Why isn't the price rising despite such clear positive news?

Historically, when there’s this kind of “strong news, weak technicals” divergence, it often signals one of two extreme moves. Either the big players are using the news as cover, shaking out weak hands before a surge, or funds are using the hype to offload, trapping retail at the top. Ultimately, it’s a psychological tug-of-war between big money and retail—using news and price action to create a perception gap.

The strategy here is actually pretty clear.

In the short term, it’s more likely to follow the technical direction and test lower support. If 1.9947 holds and is followed by a high-volume rebound, with the MACD crossing bullish near the zero axis, that’s the real entry signal. Otherwise, if support fails, be ready for a deeper correction.

ETF money is flowing in, but technicals are dropping—this tug-of-war’s outcome depends on who loses patience first. Remember: The market won’t reward you just because you spotted bullish news. It only rewards those who make the right decision at the right time.

In the next few trading days, focus on the fate of the critical 2.0499 and 1.9947 levels, and whether the MACD can reverse near the zero axis. The real opportunity often hides in contradictions that most people can’t see through.