I’m not the only one who got woken up by market volatility in the middle of the night, right?

The Fed is starting to “fight” internally—the split between hawks and doves is now out in the open. After tracking central bank policy for so many years, I have to say it straight: stop hoping for a rate cut in December. The market logic has changed; the question now isn’t “when will they cut,” but “will they cut at all.”

Where’s the conflict? The hawks are dead set on the 3.7% core PCE inflation and believe that loosening now would undo all their progress. The doves? They’re seeing small and medium-sized businesses’ cash flow breaking down, and employment data starting to weaken. Powell’s latest comments are basically him passing the buck—mainly watching and waiting, no chance of easing up.

What does this mean for the crypto market? To put it bluntly, this space is a liquidity-driven game. When rate cut expectations cool off, capital inflows slow down. Bitcoin trying to break previous highs? That just got a lot harder. Altcoin rallies? Don’t even count on it. Most likely, we’re in for a long, choppy consolidation, with pullbacks possible at any time.

So what should you do now?
Definitely don’t chase pumps. When policy direction is unclear, protecting your capital is more important than anything. Think it’s just retail investors waiting on the sidelines? The big players don’t have a direction either. This is when both bulls and bears can get wiped out, and nobody wins.

Two dates you must keep an eye on:
• Next Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes—see how serious the internal division really is
• Next Friday’s core PCE data—if it comes in hot again, December rate cuts are basically off the table

ETH’s current position is pretty awkward too. During a policy transition, survival is more important than making money. Wait until the liquidity wind really starts blowing—there’s still time to make your move.