#特朗普数字资产政策新方向 Is the Bank of Japan finally taking real action?

On December 5, reports indicate that Bank of America economist Takayasu Kudo made a startling prediction in his latest research note: the Bank of Japan is highly likely to announce a rate hike at its December 18-19 policy meeting, raising the current 0.5% policy rate to 0.75%.

What’s even more noteworthy is the pace of the rate hikes—the report clearly states that this will not be a one-off move. According to BofA’s forecast, the BOJ will adopt a "semiannual rate hike" strategy: June 2026, January 2027, and July 2027 are all penciled in for additional hikes. Such a pre-committed policy path is rarely seen in recent central bank operations.

Why act now?

Analysts point to three key signals: the continued improvement in Japanese corporate earnings, substantial progress in spring wage negotiations, and ongoing depreciation pressure on the yen in the foreign exchange market. With the central bank and government already reaching a consensus on policy direction, the likelihood of a December rate hike is very high.

What does this mean for global markets? A rise in yen interest rates could alter cross-border capital flows. Will the crypto market, as a high-risk asset class, be affected? Will the logic of carry trades be rewritten?

The answer will depend on follow-up data. Stay tuned.