Polymarket 某账户投入 1.2 万美元押注原油 3 月底前触及 120 美元

Gate News 消息,3 月 9 日,Polymarket 预测市场上,一个在油价走势相关盘口中 5 战全胜的账户投入 1.2 万美元,买入「原油将在 3 月底前触及 120 美元」,开仓均价为 63¢,目前该选项的概率为 64%。该账户此前 5 笔盈利中有 4 笔通过盘口概率波动提前平仓止盈,而非持有至事件最终结算。

作为全球最重要的石油运输咽喉,霍尔木兹海峡近期受伊朗局势及相关军事干预行动影响,正面临实质性的封锁与航运中断危机。伊朗革命卫队多次宣布海峡关闭,并威胁攻击任何试图通过的船只。受此地缘风险溢价推动,目前国际原油价格已攀升至 107 美元左右。

在海峡通行风险高企的背景下,区域内商业航运面临极高的被袭击或拦截风险。为规避武装打击并寻求安全通过,近期大量驶经该海域的国际商船与油轮,纷纷通过在船舶自动识别系统中修改目的地备注或悬挂中国国旗等方式,对外声明其为中国船只或与中国相关。

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