#美国就业数据不及预期 The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more cautious stance and the postponement of rate cuts—what does it mean?

The latest signals released by the Federal Reserve have caused a stir in the market. Powell and several officials repeatedly emphasized the independence of the central bank as unshakable, outright stating that political pressure will never influence monetary policy. They also played a timing card— the January meeting is virtually a done deal to hold steady, and the earliest rate cut would be after June.

The underlying logic is clear: although there are signs of easing inflation, it remains high; the economic fundamentals are still solid, so interest rates need to stay high. Officials like Kashkari and Williams have publicly aligned with Powell's stance. Interestingly, Fed Governor Mester subtly expressed a different view, believing that a downward trend in inflation has already emerged. There isn't complete internal consensus, but the overall direction is clear.

Bostic even issued a stern warning: "There is still a long way to go to reach the 2% inflation target." The implication is that there is no need to rush. This will put pressure on short-term risk assets, and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are definitely likely to experience volatility.

But is this all bad news? On the contrary, the Fed's insistence on independence actually helps avoid the risk of policy becoming a political tool. The economy is resilient enough, and this also indicates that there are no systemic collapse concerns. If inflation indeed declines in the second half of the year, and the rate cut gates open, capital is very likely to flow more rapidly into the crypto market.

So timing is crucial. There may be short-term turbulence, but don’t be scared by the noise. The real opportunity often lies in that moment when policy shifts. In the second half of this year, if inflation truly improves, that might be the right time to position oneself.