Apakah Federal Reserve tidak akan menurunkan suku bunga lagi? Pedagang opsi memasang taruhan besar untuk lindung nilai terhadap tingkat suku bunga yang dipertahankan hingga 2026

【比推】The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations have been pushed back again. The latest options market data shows that traders are significantly adjusting their strategies—more and more people are betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, essentially abandoning the idea of rate cuts within the year.

The trigger for this shift was the US employment data released last Friday. The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased, directly shattering market expectations of a rate cut in January. Based on implied market expectations from options prices, the probability of a rate cut this month has almost been wiped out.

What’s more interesting is the traders’ choices. The new options positions are mainly concentrated in two time windows: March and June. These traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will repeatedly delay rate cuts, effectively hedging against a “super-strong dollar” and a “sustained high interest rate environment.”

Industry insiders say that the Federal Reserve will at least keep rates until March. What does this mean? From a crypto asset perspective, in a high interest rate environment, rising liquidity costs will inevitably put pressure on risk asset allocations. Traders looking to position themselves should carefully consider their risk exposure.