The Fed’s rate cut is almost a certainty, but the reaction of the crypto market is intriguing—funds that entered early have already started playing the divergence game.

Let’s look at the market before the decision: BTC showed a textbook-level spot-futures divergence. Futures surged over 2%, clearly indicating someone is betting on the positive news; but the spot market wasn’t buying it, dropping below the $90,000 mark, with profit-taking happening ahead of time. ETH, on the other hand, moved steadily, with a nearly 2% gain and three consecutive green candles, showing good resilience. The most eye-catching was ZEC, which skyrocketed over 12% against the trend, clearly becoming a short-term hunting ground for hot money.

But the rate cut itself is no longer a secret. What truly determines the market’s next move are two variables:

Powell’s tone in his speech—if he sends a signal of continued easing (dovish), it could ignite a new round of gains; if he emphasizes that inflation pressure still needs to be tackled (turns hawkish), this round of positive news may be priced in on the spot. The dot plot’s forward guidance—if it hints at more rate cuts in the future, it would provide real support for the medium to long-term trend.

Here are some operational suggestions: those holding spot positions can wait and see, don’t mess around during this high-volatility window. For short-term players looking to make a move, focus on hot tokens like ZEC, but be sure to set strict stop-losses—quick in, quick out is the survival rule. Remember this golden rule: volatility is the only certainty tonight. Position control is always more important than guessing the direction.

Simply put, the rate cut is just the appetizer. The “gap” between Powell’s wording and market expectations is the real engine of tonight’s moves.