#周末行情分析

Bitcoin Struggles to Break Out of Oscillation Pattern, Altcoins Focus on Fund Hotspots

The market action during recent weekends has become increasingly lively. Bitcoin surged aggressively last night, breaking through $73,000 in one move, however it subsequently started to pull back, indicating that without major positive news catalysts, Bitcoin still finds it difficult to break through the large oscillation range of $65,000-$73,000.

👉 Technical Analysis - Macro Environment: Don't Forget We're Still in a Bear Market

First, we must face a fact: Bitcoin is still in a bear market cycle. Don't expect Bitcoin to suddenly break through multiple resistance levels and surge to $80,000 or higher. Currently, every resistance level exerts significant price pressure. From the daily chart perspective, there is pressure near the upper Bollinger Band at $72,500; even if the short-term breaks through it, there remains downside pressure. On the weekly chart, the MA10 moving average at $75,700 is a strong resistance level. Given current market conditions, it's quite difficult for BTC to reach this position. Any level above $72,000 is a suitable shorting point.

👉 News - Iran-US Conflict Continues to Develop, US Economy Facing "Stagflation" Crisis?

Iran launched multiple rounds of strikes against US military forces in the Middle East today, while the US bombed Iran's important oil ports. Currently, the impact of the conflict on the crypto market has been mostly digested, and Bitcoin has established its own oscillation rhythm. Additionally, the US economy's risk of "stagflation" is affecting the direction of risk assets. Pay attention to whether upcoming US economic data will constitute subsequent headwinds; if so, it will also put downward pressure on crypto prices. Of course, if the Iran-US conflict ends, Bitcoin might have momentum for a short-term surge, but breaking through the strong resistance at $75,700 would be difficult. However, without significant changes in the news landscape, the oscillation range is unlikely to break in the short term.

👉 Trading Recommendations: Short the Highs and Long the Lows Within the Oscillation Range

Following the trend, since the market (whales) has already accepted the oscillation range of $65,000-$73,000 in the short term, we should join along. Short-term traders can take action: lay long positions below $67,000 with stop loss below $65,000; build short positions above $72,000, or aggressively above $70,000 with stop loss above $75,000.

👉 Altcoins: Mainstream Altcoins Continue Short-High Long-Low Strategy, While Monitoring Fund Hotspots

Mainstream altcoins have recently "oscillated to numbness" along with Bitcoin. A typical example is Dogecoin, oscillating repeatedly in the $0.086-$0.11 range; if employing short-high long-low strategy, profits are probably already numb.

Regarding other altcoins, this can be described as "demons running wild," with capital engaging in rotational speculation on strong coins. However, if Bitcoin experiences a pullback in the short term, altcoins also face the risk of cooling off. If you want to participate, you must control your position size well. You can enter strong coins like Trump and RIVER with small positions on dips, and be sure to set stop losses.